Muharrem Ince kicks out his campaign for presidential race: “Motherland Movement in 1000 Days”

Muharrem Ince, a former physics teacher and presidential candidate in 2018 elections, announced that he was starting a new movement called as “Motherland Movement in 1000 days”. Ince will start from Sivas at the anniversary of Congress of Sivas on September 4, 2020. Sivas Congress was an important milestone in Turkish independence movement in 1919. Thus, it has a symbolic importance. He said that there are people in his team with strong background who will seek for finding solutions to the current problems in Turkey and the movement will be financed by Turkish citizens. 

Muharrem Ince became once again one of the popular topics in Turkish politics when the rumors about his movement were leaked out by well-known columnists last week. After the establishment of two new parties by former Justice and Development Party (AKP) members, Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, the main debate was about the competition for AKP’s grassroots. However, Ince’s move has shifted the focus from the AKP to Republican’s People’s Party (CHP).

 

Criticizing the CHP’s handling of the campaign process in 2018 presidential elections, Ince said that he was left alone in his campaign and afterwards. He said that he managed to take the support of electorates both from left and right sides of the political spectrum, including Kurds. He revealed his next goal as getting 50 percent plus one to win the upcoming elections. Moreover, he said that Kurds and People’s Democratic Party (HDP) played a key role in election of candidates of Nation Alliance by not running for mayorship in metropolises like İstanbul and Ankara. Criticizing the CHP for its apologetic position and he did not hesitate to thank Kurds with an open heart.

 

Looking at his statements it is unlikely to expect his resignation from the party. Yet, some analysts claim that the CHP administration might decide to dismiss Ince from the party. 

 

Potential Impact of Ince’s Movement

 

Muharrem Ince ran for the presidential election in 2018 and took 30.6 percent of the votes. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected as the president by taking 52.6 percent of the votes. Considering the 22 percent difference (more than 10 million votes), it is unlikely that he will be a strong runner against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming elections. Yet, he has a potential to be one of the running mates by collecting 100,000 signatures. Currently there are two main blocs in Turkish politics known as People’s Alliance and Nation Alliance. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to be the candidate of the People’s Alliance whereas the candidate of the Nation Alliance is not clear for now. Moreover, Kurdish HDP’s position will depend on the political balances. Yet, the most likely scenario is that there will be more than two candidates. According to the recent surveys, under these circumstances neither of potential candidates have any chance to win the elections in the first round, but President Erdogan. 

 

Looking at his statements Ince seeks to be the candidate of the Nation Alliance, but this is not a likely scenario. Considering the polarization in Turkish politics, without taking support of Nation Alliance it is not possible for him to be the second runner. Yet, his position also undermines a possible consensus among the members of Nation alliance to agree upon a common candidate against Erdogan. 

 

Ali Haydar Firat, a Turkish analyst close to the CHP, said that Ince’s movement contradict with the logic of alliance strategy. He said that if the CHP insisted about naming mayorship candidates for Istanbul and Ankara by the party itself, it was almost impossible to win the election in March 2019. 

 

The next presidential election is scheduled to be in June 2023. However, there is an ongoing debate particularly among the opposition circles about a possible snap election before 2023. 


Hasan Selim Özertem

Mersin, Taşucu

13 August 2020

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