Posts

Israel-Hamas Conflict: Shifting Discourses in Turkish Foreign Policy and Its Geopolitical Implications

Image
As rockets shatter the fragile peace in the Middle East and nations pick sides, Dr. Hasan Selim Özertem dissects the precarious dance of Turkish foreign policy amidst a new deadly flare-up in the Israel-Hamas conflict. An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara’s diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey’s geopolitical path. On October 7, the world woke up to another regional crisis in the Middle East. Breaching Israel’s defenses, Hamas militants started to raid as hundreds of rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of Israelis were killed, and dozens were taken hostages before the militants retreated. This was a symbolic attack on the 50thanniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which caught Israel unprepared while relying on its high-tech defensive measures. This was a shock for the Israeli nation and government, and tarnished its longstanding sense of in...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Ukrainian Grain Deal after Russia’s Withdrawal: A Peace Bridge or a Gordian Knot in the Black Sea?

Image
As rockets shatter the fragile peace in the Middle East and nations pick sides, Dr. Hasan Selim Özertem dissects the precarious dance of Turkish foreign policy amidst a new deadly flare-up in the Israel-Hamas conflict. An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara’s diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey’s geopolitical path. On October 7, the world woke up to another regional crisis in the Middle East. Breaching Israel’s defenses, Hamas militants started to raid as hundreds of rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of Israelis were killed, and dozens were taken hostages before the militants retreated. This was a symbolic attack on the 50thanniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which caught Israel unprepared while relying on its high-tech defensive measures. This was a shock for the Israeli nation and government, and tarnished its longstanding sense of in...
Post a Comment
Read more

Turkey’s Relations with Sweden: The Puzzle of NATO’s Expansion

Image
Turkey’s Relations with Sweden: The Puzzle of NATO’s Expansion The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden, writes  Hasan Selim Özertem , Ankara-based political analyst. On January 21, far-right extremist politician Rasmus Paludan burned a copy of the Quran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. On the same day, PKK sympathizers were also protesting Turkey and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the streets of Sweden’s capital. Immediately afterwards, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the protests and defined the burning of the Quran as a “ vile attack ”. Later, Turkish Minister of Defence Hulusi Akar stated that Swedish Minister of Defence Pål Jonson’s planned visit was cancelled. The visit was a part of the coordination meeting between the parties to discuss the accession process. These developments were just harbinge...
Post a Comment
Read more

Turkish Airlines as a flexible foreign policy tool for Ankara

Image
Turkish Airlines (THY) was established as a department of the Ministry of Defense in 1933. It evolved into an airline company that flies to 334 destinations in 2021. The number of destinations tripled under the AK Party’s rule from 103 destinations in 2003. The THY is one of the main drivers of Turkey’s foreign trade and tourism with its rapidly growing operations in the last two decades.    Flying to 128 countries, the THY serves the mobility of people and commodities between Turkey and the rest of the world. Even during the pandemic in 2020, the load factor of the THY was above 70 percent, just ten points lower than in 2019. During the pandemic, the company focused on enhancing its operations in the cargo sector and expanded its share in freight tonne kilometers (FTK) to 4.4 percent on a global scale. This increase carried the company to sixth place in the world in 2020. Despite suffering a loss of $836 million in 2020, thanks to the momentum in cargo operations and recoveri...
Post a Comment
Read more

Back to “the Tradition" - Turkey’s Changing Position from a Federal to a Two-State Solution to the Cyprus Conflict

Image
Back to “the Tradition" - Turkey’s Changing Position from a Federal to a Two-State Solution to the Cyprus Conflict When it came to power in 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) defended a bicommunal, federal solution for Cyprus, and supported the Annan Plan to reunite the island. This appeared at the time as a remarkable change in Turkish foreign policy, which had backed a confederal solution in Cyprus since 1997. Nevertheless, after years of negotiations to solve the Cyprus conflict, Ankara has decided to leave aside its support for a federal solution and re-embrace “the traditional policy.” Following the failure to reach a resolution in 2017, Ankara, together with the officials in Northern Cyprus, now proposes a two-state solution or a loose confederation in Cyprus. This dramatic shift shows that the gap between Greeks and Turks has widened ever more. This paper analyzes the evolution of Ankara’s position by looking at the very essence of the new proposal and the irreco...
Post a Comment
Read more

Muharrem Ince kicks out his campaign for presidential race: “Motherland Movement in 1000 Days”

Muharrem Ince, a former physics teacher and presidential candidate in 2018 elections, announced that he was starting a new movement called as “Motherland Movement in 1000 days”. Ince will start from Sivas at the anniversary of Congress of Sivas on September 4, 2020. Sivas Congress was an important milestone in Turkish independence movement in 1919. Thus, it has a symbolic importance. He said that there are people in his team with strong background who will seek for finding solutions to the current problems in Turkey and the movement will be financed by Turkish citizens.   Muharrem Ince became once again one of the popular topics in Turkish politics when the rumors about his movement were leaked out by well-known columnists last week. After the establishment of two new parties by former Justice and Development Party (AKP) members, Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, the main debate was about the competition for AKP’s grassroots. However, Ince’s move has shifted the focus from the AKP t...
Post a Comment
Read more

Is Turkey projecting its power in Libya?

Image
Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar left Berlin Conference without committing any promises in January 2020. Probably, then it was more tempting for Haftar to continue military campaign and gain control of the whole country rather than making a ceasefire agreement. However, UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), with Turkey’s support, managed to recontrol Tripoli and push back Haftar forces. This changed the balances dramatically. Now, the officials of Libyan National Army (LNA) call for a ceasefire.  Diplomatic efforts seek to resolve the ongoing conflict continue. Though, Libyan and Turkish officials’ statements show that the GNA wants to take the control of Sirte and al-Jufra before starting negotiations. In response, Egyptian President Abdelfattah Al-Sisi declared that Sirte and al-Jufra are Cairo’s redline. He visited Egyptian armed forces on the border of Libya to demonstrate Egypt’s position blatantly. Controlling these cities is strategically important for both sides. ...
Post a Comment
Read more